Dollar’s recovery is starting pick up momentum in early US session, as risk off sentiment deepens. The development is reflected in broad based selloff in Australian and New Zealand Dollar. Sterling is also weak as mild reaction to UK’s new budget statement. Canadian Dollar and Euro are the firmer ones next to Dollar, while Yen and Swiss Franc are mixed.
Technically, as Sterling dips, focus is back on 0.8827 resistance in EUR/GBP. Break there will resume larger rebound from 0.8570. Further break of 0.8869 resistance will pave the way to retest 0.9267 high. That, if happens, could add further pressure to the Pound elsewhere.
In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is down-0.71%. DAX is down -0.54%. CAC is down -1.15%. Germany 10-year yield is up 0.033 at 2.031. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei dropped -0.35%. Hong Kong HSI dropped -1.15%. China Shanghai SSE dropped -0.15%. Singapore Strait Times rose 0.61%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.0034 to 0.249.
Fed Bullard: Policy rate not yet sufficiently restrictive
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said, “even under these generous assumptions, the policy rate is not yet in a zone that may be considered sufficiently restrictive”. And, “to attain a sufficiently restrictive level, the policy rate will need to be increased further.”
“Thus far, the change in the monetary-policy stance appears to have had only limited effects on observed inflation, but market pricing suggests disinflation is expected in 2023,” Bullard said.
US initial jobless claims dropped to 222k
US initial jobless claims dropped -4k to 222k in the week ending November 12, above expectation of 220k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 2k to 221k.
Continuing claims rose 13k to 1507 k in the week ending November 5. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 31k to 1482k.
Philly Fed survey dropped from -8.7 to 19.4 in November, below expectation of -6.
Eurozone CPI finalized at 10.6% yoy in Oct, core CPI at 5.0% yoy
Eurozone CPI was finalized at 10.6% yoy in October, up from September’s 9.9% yoy. CPI core (all item ex energy, food, alcohol, & tobacco), was finalized at 5.0% yoy, up from prior month’s 4.8% yoy. The highest contribution to annual inflation rate came from energy (+4.44%), followed by food, alcohol & tobacco (+2.74%), services (+1.82%) and non-energy industrial goods (+1.62%).
EU CPI was finalized at 11.5% yoy, up from September’s 10.9% yoy. The lowest annual rates were registered in France (7.1%), Spain (7.3%) and Malta (7.4%). The highest annual rates were recorded in Estonia (22.5%), Lithuania (22.1%) and Hungary (21.9%). Compared with September, annual inflation fell in eleven Member States, remained stable in three and rose in thirteen.
BoJ Kuroda: May take a long time to achieve price stability with wage hikes
BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda told the parliament that it may “take a long time” to achieve the “price stability target, involving wage hikes”. He reiterated that the central bank needs to continue with its monetary easing to support a fragile recovery.
At the same session, Executive Director Shinichi Uchida said it was too early to discuss exit from monetary stimulus. “When exiting, the point will be adjusting long-term and short-term policy rates and the BoJ’s balance sheet,” Uchida said. “The order and mixture of those factors would differ depending on economy, prices and financial situations at the time.”
Japan trade deficit hit another record as import surged
Japan’s exports rose 25.3% yoy to JPY 9.00T in October, after shipments of cars and electronics components increased. Imports rose 53.5% yoy to JPY 11.16T, hitting a historical high, as led by crude oil, liquefied natural gas and coal.
Trade deficit came in at JPY -2.16T, a record for the month. Also, Japan has seen as record trade deficit for each month in the past six months, on rising energy and raw material costs, as well as weak Yen exchange rates.
US-bound exports rose 36.5% yoy to JPY 1.78T while imports rose 47.1% yoy to JPY 1.06T. Exports to China rose 7.7% yoy to JPY 1.72T while imports rose 39.3% yoy to JPY 2.39T.
In seasonally adjusted term, exports rose 2.2% mom to JPY 8.91T. Imports rose 4.2% mom to JPY 11.21T. Trade deficit came in at JPY -2.30T.
Australia employment grew 32.3k in Oct, unemployment rate dropped to 3.4%
Australia employment rose 32.2k in October, above expectation of 15.0k. Unemployment rate dropped from 3.5% to 3.4%, below expectation of 3.5%. Participation rate was unchanged at 66.5%. Monthly hours worked in all jobs rose 2.3% mom.
“Although employment in seasonally adjusted terms rose 0.2 per cent in October 2022, the underlying trend estimate was monthly growth of around 0.12 per cent. This was below the average for the 20 years prior to the pandemic of 0.16 per cent,” Bjorn Jarvis, head of labour statistics at the ABS said.
“This indicates that while employment has continued to grow, the rate of growth has slowed to below the longer-term average. It has been below this average for the past 5 months.”
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1851; (P) 1.1896; (R1) 1.1961; More…
GBP/USD’s retreat from 1.2028 extends lower today but stays above 1.1597 resistance turned support. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Further rise is expected, and break of 1.2028 will target 100% projection of 1.0351 to 1.1494 from 1.1145 at 1.2288. However, sustained break of 1.1597 will bring deeper fall to 1.1145 support instead.
In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0351 medium term bottom is at least correcting whole down trend from 1.4248 (2021 high). Further rise is expected as long as 1.1145 support holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 1.4248 to 1.0351 at 1.2759.
Economic Indicators Update
PPI Input Q/Q Q3
PPI Output Q/Q Q3
Trade Balance (JPY) Oct
Employment Change Oct
Unemployment Rate Oct
Trade Balance (CHF) Oct
Italy Trade Balance (EUR) Sep
Eurozone CPI Y/Y Oct F
Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y Oct F
Building Permits Oct
Housing Starts Oct
Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 11)
Philadelphia Fed Survey Nov
Natural Gas Storage