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Economic Report: Empire State, Philly Fed indexes show contractions in activity in September

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The numbers: Two regional gauges of manufacturing sentiment moved into slight contraction territory in September, according to data released Thursday.

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s manufacturing index slowed to a reading of negative 9.9 in September from 6.2 in the prior month. Economists had expected a reading of 2.3 according to a Wall Street Journal survey of economists.

The Empire State Index, meanwhile, improved to a reading of negative 1.5 in September from negative 31.3 in the prior month, the New York Federal Reserve said. Economists had expected a reading of negative 13.8, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Any reading below zero indicates deteriorating conditions.

Key details: The Philly Fed and New York indexes are based on a single-stand alone question.

In key subcomponents in the Philadelphia survey, new orders fell to negative 17.6 in September from negative 5.1 in the prior month. Shipments in Philadelphia fell to 8.8 from 24.8 in August.

New orders in the New York region rebounded 33.3 points to 3.7 in September. Shipments soared 43.7 points to 19.6 in the region.

Some measures of price pressures moved lower in the reports. In New York, input prices sank 15.9 points to 39.6. In Philadelphia, prices paid fell to 29.8 from 43.6.

Big picture: The pace of expansion in the factory sector has clearly slowed, economists said.

The two regional Fed surveys are used by economists to gauge the strength of the national ISM factory index, which will be released on Oct. 3. Last month, the ISM index held steady at 52.8%, the lowest level since early in the pandemic.

Market reaction: U.S. stocks
DJIA,
+0.27%

SPX,
+0.15%

were set to open lower on Thursday. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note
TMUBMUSD10Y,
3.446%

was up to 3.46%.

Need to Know: Ray Dalio says watch out for rates reaching this level, because Wall Street stocks will take a 20% hit

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