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In One Chart: Republicans have over 70% chance of winning Senate in midterm elections, betting markets say


The Republican Party’s prospects in Tuesday’s midterm elections have been continuing to climb this fall, with betting market PredictIt now giving the GOP a more than 70% chance for taking control of the U.S. Senate away from Democrats.

Republicans reached a 74% chance of winning the Senate on Wednesday and were at 76% as of Thursday, according to PredictIt data.

Democrats had been enjoying an edge over the GOP throughout August and September, but that advantage went away in the second week of October.

“Broadly speaking, Democrats’ momentum from the summer has largely leveled off, with voters increasingly focused on Republican issues such as the economy, inflation, and crime, at the expense of Democrats’ agenda items, including Roe and guns, according to recent polls,” said Benjamin Salisbury, director of research at Height Capital Markets, in a recent note.

Related: U.S. inflation still running hot, key PCE price gauge shows

Also read: Here’s what the midterm elections could mean for the financial sector, energy, healthcare and more

Note that PredictIt says the sum of all odds can be higher than 100%, or $1, especially when they have been changing rapidly, because they reflect most recent trades.

Other political betting sites join PredictIt in favoring Republicans, with Smarkets giving the GOP a 70% chance for winning the Senate.

To be sure, some forecasts give Democrats better odds for maintaining their grip on the 50-50 Senate, which they currently control only because Vice President Kamala Harris can cast tiebreaking votes. A FiveThirtyEight model gives only a 55% chance for that chamber of Congress flipping red.

Meanwhile, a recent NBC News poll found 47% of registered voters say they prefer Democrats to control Congress, while 46% want a Republican-run Congress — essentially unchanged from last month, when the parties were tied at 46%.

The poll also found voter interest has reached an all-time high for a midterm election. Election Day is this coming Tuesday, just days away.

U.S. stocks

looked set for gains on Friday, as traders reacted to a better-than-expected jobs report, but the S&P 500

is down 22% this year.

Now read: Pollster Frank Luntz is ‘scared to death’ about midterm elections: ‘I’m warning the markets now that I don’t think we’re going to have a clear result’

And see: If this seat flips red, Republicans will have ‘probably won a relatively comfortable House majority’ 

Plus: Meet the 10 biggest megadonors for the 2022 midterm elections

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